Pre-Marathon Thoughts: Pace
by Robert James Reese » May 9th, 2009 » 7 Comments
If I learned anything at my first marathon last fall, it was that you have to go in with a plan and, more importantly, stick to it. I let my emotions get the best of me and took off on too fast of a start, then crashed horribly (finishing the second half over 16 minutes slower than the first). So, this time around, I'm going to have my plan ready before I start and stick to it no matter what. The problem is, I can't figure out what that plan should be.
All week long, I've been trying to settle into a "comfortable groove" where running is light and easy, not forced – a pace that I feel like I would be able to sustain for a full 26.2 miles. So, I've made it a point to not look at the numbers Guadalupe feeds me until the end of the runs, just to listen to my body and what's comfortable.
The results have been surprising. When left to my natural inclinations, I'm trending towards 6:55/mile. Then, this morning, I did 8.7 miles in the park and finished up at an average of 6:56/mile again. It included an extra pass at my beloved Harlem Hill and still, I was feeling really good afterwards, ready to keep running.
But... That was 8 miles, not 26.
I really don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past and attempt to run this thing too fast and then not be able to finish it properly. Then again, I think it would be equally disheartening if I finished feeling like I hadn't given it all that I could have... There's a magic number someplace in the middle. But, what is it?
This question has been plaguing my thoughts for the last couple months now and I'm quickly running out of time to decide. I crunched the numbers today on the race time predictors. I put in all my race PRs and got some wildly different results (like one ridiculous prediction of 2:40:10 based on my 1 mile time), but the ones I feel are most relevant are those from my 10 mile time because it was my most recent race longer than a few miles. Using that finishing time, I got an average prediction of 2:59:37. I know these predictors have a lot of flaws, but it seems like a useful tool when you have no idea what to realistically expect.
Of course, there's the whole BQ thing too. I have to get a 3:10:59 to qualify for Boston next year. Originally I had planned to just run conservatively, very close to that number and make sure I qualify. But now, after all the training I've done, I realize that I would never be happy with running this race conservatively. I need to know how fast I can run a marathon, what my real personal best is.
So, here's the targets I've narrowed it down to:
» 6:52/mile, 2:59:59
» 7:00/mile, 3:03:32
» 7:03/mile, 3:05:00
» 7:10/mile, 3:07:54
How do I know which of these is the fastest I can run without crashing late in the race? It's such an overwhelming choice. I know I need to make it before the race starts, but I'm putting it off as long as possible. What do you all think?
All week long, I've been trying to settle into a "comfortable groove" where running is light and easy, not forced – a pace that I feel like I would be able to sustain for a full 26.2 miles. So, I've made it a point to not look at the numbers Guadalupe feeds me until the end of the runs, just to listen to my body and what's comfortable.
The results have been surprising. When left to my natural inclinations, I'm trending towards 6:55/mile. Then, this morning, I did 8.7 miles in the park and finished up at an average of 6:56/mile again. It included an extra pass at my beloved Harlem Hill and still, I was feeling really good afterwards, ready to keep running.
But... That was 8 miles, not 26.
I really don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past and attempt to run this thing too fast and then not be able to finish it properly. Then again, I think it would be equally disheartening if I finished feeling like I hadn't given it all that I could have... There's a magic number someplace in the middle. But, what is it?
This question has been plaguing my thoughts for the last couple months now and I'm quickly running out of time to decide. I crunched the numbers today on the race time predictors. I put in all my race PRs and got some wildly different results (like one ridiculous prediction of 2:40:10 based on my 1 mile time), but the ones I feel are most relevant are those from my 10 mile time because it was my most recent race longer than a few miles. Using that finishing time, I got an average prediction of 2:59:37. I know these predictors have a lot of flaws, but it seems like a useful tool when you have no idea what to realistically expect.
Of course, there's the whole BQ thing too. I have to get a 3:10:59 to qualify for Boston next year. Originally I had planned to just run conservatively, very close to that number and make sure I qualify. But now, after all the training I've done, I realize that I would never be happy with running this race conservatively. I need to know how fast I can run a marathon, what my real personal best is.
So, here's the targets I've narrowed it down to:
» 6:52/mile, 2:59:59
» 7:00/mile, 3:03:32
» 7:03/mile, 3:05:00
» 7:10/mile, 3:07:54
How do I know which of these is the fastest I can run without crashing late in the race? It's such an overwhelming choice. I know I need to make it before the race starts, but I'm putting it off as long as possible. What do you all think?
7 Comments
Here's my thinking. My 2006 marathon was ultimately slower than would have been predicted by my half-marathon (and my race times match up pretty well across all distances from the HM down to the mile (except for the 5K)) but I attribute that to two factors. First, I was a little soft training-wise, i.e., I didn't have that much distance and I did only one longish MP workout.
Second, I had not experimented with Gatorade going in so only took water, albeit at every stop, during the race. I did, however, take 3 gels, at pre-determined points based upon what I had done in training. My big mistake was to go out much too fast, knowing it at the time but being unable to slow down. (I ended up with an 8 minute negative split.) That would have been helped by more MP-work to off-set my speedwork which was so much faster and to get accustomed to the slower pace.
Speaking for me, then, if I do it again, I will target a solid, but not unreasonable, pace, and go for it. I figure that I can suggest no less for anyone else. It seems that your training has gone well, you've done the heavy lifting, the hay's in the barn (as they say). If you go out at the solid pace, I think you'll be strong enough to bring it home.
7:03 mile with a conservative start (7:10+ for miles 1-3) and the intent of a negative split (finish up sub-7:00 if you're able).
There's a big difference between running 8 miles at a pace when that's the whole run and running 8 miles at a pace when you're already tired. I suppose this is why my coach has me tacking MPace or faster running on the end long runs (run 15 miles at LR pace, then run another 3 at MPace - 10 seconds). Eventually, you get a sense of how fast you can run when you're already fatigued.
It's tempting to go for the sub-3, but if you're naturally trending toward a 6:55 pace in shorter runs, I fear that running even just 3-4 seconds per mile faster over the course of the entire race may be too risky. It's amazing how much you can screw up your entire race in just the first mile or two.
Using myself as an example, I'm fairly confident that I can run around 7:05 for a marathon. I cannot run 7:00. It's only a 5 second difference, but I know it's too fast and I'll pay dearly for it after mile 18 if I try.
The first 10 miles of a marathon should feel ridiculously slow. Would your chosen pace, on fully rested legs, feel ridiculously slow? Another strategy is to run the first few miles 5-10 seconds slower than target pace. This is what I plan to do in three weeks, as it worked very well for me in one of my races.
Finally, I don't agree that you should always stick to a plan. But by this I mean you may need to adjust your plan downward if factors beyond your control (wind, hills, rain, crowds) merit a reevaluation. And, sometimes you have a rare "on" day -- unfortunately, they usually only happen in training -- during which you discover that you can run faster than you'd thought. But it's best to go with that during the latter part of the race, when you're sure about what's happening.
I do feel confident in my long runs. I finished an 18 miler, two 20s, two 22s, and a 24. They were all significantly slower than marathon pace though (averaging 7:40/mile). I was definitely tired after them, but generally felt I could do more if necessary.
I think the light spot in my training was in the mid-week runs. Rather than the 8-10 daily miles that many competitive marathoners do, I did 5-6 and often took 2 rest days a week instead of 1. I tried early on to push beyond this, but my body wouldn't let me. So, my training capped out at around 60 miles/week.
Julie, I know you're right about the impact that running even five seconds a mile faster can be huge. The whole point of me trying to find my natural stride this week was to know how fast I should be going -- changing that up by a few seconds could definitely through me out of my groove.
Then again, if I was wanting to just be comfortable, I should be hanging out at home watching t.v. rather than running a marathon. Going out for the sub-3 time is so very tempting. It's a huge benchmark that I've always had as a target somewhere in the future -- to be able to get it out of the way seems almost too good to be true.
I have the diet stuff down pretty good, I think. I'm taking Gatorade at every stop, plus I'll have to PowerBar gels with me for miles 10 and 20. I've been doing this for all my long runs. I've also planned out my meals for the last few days to try to ensure there are no GI issues.
Finally, I agree that there are several outside factors that could change the target. I don't really have to worry about hills or crowds, but heat or wind could definitely be issues. So, I'll probably wait until Saturday night or even Sunday morning down in Delaware to make my final decision. But, once I cross that starting line, I'm sticking to the script and am not going to let my emotions take over again.
Good luck!
At any rate, I think it all depends on how comfortable you think you will feel at the latter stages of the race. I would say you should go for a relatively conservative first half (low 1:30s) and adjust from there. If you feel fit go for it and finish strongly by negative splitting maybe a sub-3 marathon. But if you get into trouble you can slow down and still be able to finish with a BQ.
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